The market turned higher today but still closed the week sharply lower than where it was last Friday. The WASDE report shows supply at a very high level; however, the trade also sees strong demand which could cut the newly projected carryover over the next few months. USDA pegged the 2025 U.S. corn yield at a record 186.5 bushels per acre on Monday as U.S. production continues to outpace the rest of the world. Since the report we have seen support in the$4.21 down to $4.17 level but it hasn’t confirmed. The technical picture needs a bullish news event or a strong technical reversal if we are going to see a change in the bearish technical leaning that we have right now. After today, $4.25 up to $4.27 ¼ is overhead resistance with $4.21 down to $4.17 as support.
The WASDE report this week was bearish but news since then has the trade trying to determine the effect on the supply in the long run. Even so, nothing has changed in the short run as China finishes buying its promised 12 MMT and the trade sees a very large crop coming in Brazil. If the trades concerns over headline news comes to fruition, we could see a test of the overhead resistance at $10.71. Even so, the backdrop here remains bearish and so does the trend.
The competitiveness of Brazilian soybeans may have limited sharper gains on the CBOT, as the country recorded record export levels in 2025 and began harvesting the 2025/26 crop in recent days. Weather conditions in Brazil are highly favorable for fieldwork and final grain development at this time, and although irregular rainfall in some regions may have had an impact, production estimates remain strong at 177.6 million tons, considering the latest marginal increase. In Argentina, crop outlooks also remain positive.
Argentina cuts corn crop condition 11% on dry condition.
John Anderson Vice President of Grain Farmers Union Cooperative 563-380-2311
