There has been concern if China will meet the 12 MMT purchases by the end of the year. The trade is suspecting that will not be completed until the end of February. However, it was reported Friday that China bought 462,000 MT of beans. That is about 18 cargos, still short of the promised amount. To help the US achieve this it is the opinion that China needs to slow down purchasing from Brazil for a bit. Typically, China goes to South America in the spring for cheaper prices due to South American harvest comes in the spring, opposite of the US.
The trade does have the December USDA Report to look forward to next Tuesday, for what it’s worth – the government doesn’t do supply-side revisions until January so the demand side of the domestic corn and soybean balance tables will be in focus. Trade estimates are looking for slightly lower corn ending stocks due to a strong ongoing export pace, and slightly higher soybean ending stocks due to that lagging export pace.
Strong corn exports have helped support bean futures. Some pressure this week came from the rhetoric from Russia they will close the Black Sea as a retaliation to Ukraine having drone attacks on Russian vessels. That has not taken place yet, so the market is settling down from that.
The markets are projected to move sideways going into the holiday season. Commercial hedging is extremely quiet across the US. That would indicate the lackluster marketing. Technical strength indicators show corn to be 61% bullish in March futures and beans to be 55% in the January futures market. This too, shows steady to slightly higher opportunities, however, it is expected to see some volatility. There will be some year farmer selling for revenue needed in 2025 but also it is the norm to see selling pick up after the first of the year. Get target price offers placed so that you can take advantage of the volatility and protect prices from potential hedge pressure in January.
This year has been one of the hardest years financially on producers for some time now. A marketing plan is even more important in these situations. Visit with Farmers Union to get offers placed and to learn more about marketing tools that can be used mitigate risk. Put a plan in place and constantly re-evaluate. Farmers Union can help point out potential market opportunities and market projections.
John R. Anderson Vice President of Grain Farmers Union Cooperative 563-380-2311
