Brazil’s CONAB released updated 2025/26 crop estimates yesterday morning, showing total corn production at 138.45 million metric tons, slightly below the previous 138.87 million, with planted area reduced to 22.525 million hectares. Second-crop corn output was trimmed to 109.26 million metric tons as planted area declined, while first-crop corn increased to 26.7 million metric tons due to higher acreage. National corn yield was placed at 6.146 metric tons per hectare, equivalent to 98 bushels per acre, and corn exports remained unchanged at 46.5 million metric tons. Soybean production was raised to 177.98 million metric tons, up from 176.12 million, with exports now projected at 112.19 million metric tons. Soybean planted area was reported at 48.434 million hectares, and yields improved to 3.675 metric tons per hectare, or 54.6 bushels per acre, contributing to higher ending stocks estimated at 11.866 million metric tons, leaving roughly a 436-million-bushel carryout.
Corn weekly export sales over 2 MMT, much higher-than-expected. Weekly corn sales totaled 81 mbu this week, and above the seasonal average. Cumulative corn sales are now 110 mbu ahead of pace after the USDA upped their annual estimate by 100 mbu on Tuesday in the Feb WADSE.
Weekly export sales came in below all trade estimates. Soybean sales totaled 10 mbu, the lowest total of the year, below average, and towards the low end of expectations. Cumulative soybean sales are now 89 mbu behind pace. Published Articles in China point to further US demand. Thursday’s buying was on headline news as the South China Morning Post published a paper on additional Chinese buying of US soybeans. This newa is keeping funds actively engaged in buying beans and has sellers on sidelines waiting to see where it goes.
Both corn and soybeans look as though they may end the week on a sour note. A lack of follow through on Trump’s soybean purchase claim is starting to weigh on the market’s mind. On the flip side of the Chinese trade relationship coin, the proposed, early-April meeting between the country’s two leaders will be highly anticipated with hopes that a more normal arrangement is reestablished.
Resistance: $4.35 (recent high), $4.40 (major moving avgs) and $4.60 (62% retracement). • Support at $4.25 (channel) $4.17 (recent low) and $4.10 (contract low). Resistance: $11.70 (November highs) • Support: $10.38 (recent low) and $9.93 (contract low.
John R. Anderson Vice President of Grain Farmers Union Cooperative 563-380-2311
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