Weekly Grain Comments 11/14/25
USDA pegged the U.S. corn yield at 186.0 bushels per acre, but 2 bushels above the average trade guess. That put the crop at 16.752 billion bushels, up 200 million from the average trade guess, but down 62 million bushels from USDA's September estimate. USDA incorporated its surprise stocks numbers from September 30 by cutting last year's feed use to 5.492 billion bushels, while keeping this year's feed use at 6.1 billion bushels. USDA claims that feed use will be more than 600 million bushels higher this year despite even to slightly lower animal units. That leaves the feed usage number quite vulnerable. USDA also left ethanol corn use for this year at 5.6 billion bushels, despite the data thus far that suggests that the number is up to 100 million bushels too high. It raised exports by 100 million to a record 3.075 billion, and one can make an argument for that based on the export inspection data thus far. USDA pegged ending corn stocks at 2.154 billion bushels, making it look like it was solving for a number near 2.1 billion bushels.
For soybeans, it incorporated the September 30 stocks numbers, adjusted this year's yield down to 53.0 bushels per acre, and cut exports by 50 million bushels. The yield estimate was close to expectations, but the trade was really hoping for an export number that matched or was larger than USDA's September estimate. A lot of premium had been put into prices in recent days on that hope. It didn't happen. However, the past six weeks of flash sales revealed that China bought 12.2 million bushels of soybeans since late October, with "unknown" buying a similar amount. That's 5.5% of what it committed to by December 31.
John R. AndersonVice President of Grain
Farmers Union Cooperative
563-380-2311
