This week saw a choppy futures market with many influencers such as the Planting Intentions, Stocks report, Iran, talks coming up with China, Oil, and other outside of grain items. Corn Planted Acreage Down 3 Percent from 2025 Soybean Acreage Up 4 Percent. Corn planted area for all purposes in 2026 is estimated at 95.3 million acres, down 3 percent or 3.45 million acres from last year. Compared with last year, planted acreage is expected to be down or unchanged in 37 of the 48 estimating States. Soybean planted area for 2026 is estimated at 84.7 million acres, up 4 percent from last year. Compared with last year, planted acreage is up or unchanged in 20 of the 29 estimating States. March 1 Stocks were larger than last year across the board, with corn Stocks having a 9-billion-bushel handle and soybeans a 2-billion-bushel handle.
The surveys sent to producers were sent before Iran, input prices increased, Strait of Hormuz affects, and high fuel prices. Fuel prices have also been a common topic in the news. The acres of corn and bean always have a fight for acres during planting and how the weather is during planting. If weather conditions are good normally producers keep planting a little more what they are doing, then before switching.
Brazil’s soybean harvest has reached 72%, up from 64% last week. Despite the solid weekly progress, harvest remains behind both the 5YA of 78% and last year’s rapid pace of 83%. They still range approximately $1.00 per bushel less than US bean prices. China typically turns to South America this time of year. Trump remains optimistic that upcoming talks will help. The trade expects the talk to be positive for commodities, but beans may not be as much of a priority. It will be interesting to see what the results are.
Funds have been busy adding more corn contracts to their already large ownership. At some point we may see them take some profits moves in the futures market. Bean Funds slightly reduced their long position after being a seller.
The global oil market is extremely tight following the outbreak of the Third Gulf War, as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has abruptly removed roughly 20 million barrels per day of crude and refined products from the world’s supply. If the situation continues, the market may eventually be forced into a period of demand destruction. This would occur either through emergency policies designed to restrict energy consumption or through prices rising to levels that cause consumers to cut back on their own. The US gasoline national avg retail price has risen above $4/gl for the first time since 2022, per AAA. Everyone also know how diesel prices are going up too.
Corn chart resistance in the May is from $4.70 up to $4.76 while support remains running from $4.58 down to$4.49. Beans support is at $11.45 in May with resistance at 11.70 up to$11.77. Technicals cold soon come back to being more representative after the main market mover has been the world information stemming from the wars, oil, vessel passages in the Straights, and so on.
Have blessed Easter.
John R. Anderson Vice President of Grain Farmers Union Cooperative 563-380-2311
