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This year has been a difficult year for marketing grain due to all the outside influences on markets such as tariff policies, Black Sea logistics, China, and government shutdown affecting prices. Marketing plans are very important to optimize grain selling. Re-evaluation of plans should be a part of the process with the ever-changing conditions. By not doing something to sell is doing “something”. Consider that and the impact of.
WASDE shows global demand for corn at record highs. Traders now see soybean weakness as a drag on corn. The US supply is large enough that the resistance is not far from where the market levels are presently. The corn exports are impressive, while the soybean numbers are disappointing. A lack of Chinese buying is the primary reason that they're disappointing. The marketing year to date soybean export sales through November 13 total a 12-year low 676 million bushels, down 472 million bushels from the previous year's pace.
The headlines will say that it is due to skepticism over Chinese buying, but this has more to do with speculative funds, chart signals, and the government shutdown. Managed money poured into the soybean market in early October when President Trump spoke of his expectations of talking to Chinese. The slow start to Chinese buying following the handshake agreement, and the lack of Chinese official statements confirming White House expectations, triggered speculative profit taking in mid-November, along with farmer selling, that saw futures prices post their highpoint for the move on November 18. . U.S. soybeans are 60 - 90 cents per bushel higher than old-crop Brazilian supplies landed at the port in China. The problem for Brazil is that China's reserve capacity is near full, so it must auction off older supplies to crushers to make room for the new U.S. shipments, and that could end up hurting Brazil demand
Technical levels for corn indicate $4.52 as a resistance level for futures and support at $4.41. Beans indicate support at $10.63.
News this week included the Farmer Bridge Assistance payment rates for corn and beans.
John R. Anderson Vice President of Grain Farmers Union Cooperative 563-380-2311
