DTN Midday Grain Comments     08/11 11:02

   Corn, Soybean, Wheat Futures All Lower at Midday Tuesday

   Corn futures are 3 to 4 cents lower at midday Tuesday; soybean futures are 
11 to 12 cents lower; wheat futures are 10 to 11 cents lower. 

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

MARKET SUMMARY:

   Corn futures are 3 to 4 cents lower at midday Tuesday; soybean futures are 
11 to 12 cents lower; wheat futures are 10 to 11 cents lower. The U.S. stock 
market is narrowly mixed at midday with the S&P 5 points lower. The U.S. Dollar 
Index is 3 points higher. The interest rate products are firmer. Energy trade 
is mixed with crude up 1.10 and natural gas .03 cents lower. Livestock trade is 
mixed with feeder cattle leading. Precious metals are mixed with gold up 15.00.

CORN:

   Corn futures are 3 to 4 cents lower at midday with early gains fading as we 
continue to chop along ahead of the WASDE report Wednesday. On the report, 
trade is looking for yield at 182.3 bushels per acre (bpa) with old-crop 
carryout at 2.0 billion bushels (bb) and new crop at 1.724 bb, all down 
slightly from last month. Ethanol margins remain strong in the short term with 
unleaded holding the upper end of the range. Weather looks to keep the central 
and eastern belt wet with heat to the south. Weekly crop progress showed good 
to excellent at 61% (steady) and 14% poor to very poor (steady) with 61% in the 
dough versus 55% on average, and 16% dented versus 12% on average. Basis will 
likely drift lower except for the west in the short term. On the September 
chart, the 20-day moving average at $4.48 has become resistance with the fresh 
low scored last week at $4.34 as support, which we tested Tuesday morning.

SOYBEANS:

   Soybean futures are 11 to 12 cents lower at midday with trade continuing to 
grind along the lower end of the range with little fresh news ahead of the 
report Wednesday with broader selling during the day session. Meal is flat to 
1.00 lower and oil is 120 to 130 points lower. On the report, trade is looking 
for yield at 52.8 bpa with old-crop carryout at 321 million bushels (mb) and 
new at 302 mb, also down slightly from last month. Basis will likely ease as 
product action drifts along. Weather looks to keep stress south into podfill 
season for the most part. Weekly crop progress showed good to excellent at 62% 
(down 1 percentage point) and 10% poor to very poor (up one point) with 74% 
setting pods versus 69% on average and 93% blooming versus 91% on average. The 
daily export wire saw 136,000 metric tons (mt) sold to China and 180,000 mt of 
meal to Philippines. On the September contract, chart resistance is the 20-day 
moving average at $11.88 with the Lower Bollinger Band at $11.38 as support.

WHEAT:

   Wheat futures are 11 to 12 cents lower at midday with action fading back 
into the lower end of the range after failing to hold gains to start the week 
and fresh Black Sea news is limited. On the report, trade is looking for wheat 
carryout at 718 mb, down just slightly from last month. Spring wheat areas 
should see harvest expand further with 24% cut versus 19% on average with good 
to excellent at 51% (down 3 points) and 16% poor to very poor (up four points) 
with 91% of winter wheat harvested, same as average. Matif wheat is extending 
the Monday losses with trade sharply lower at midday. On the KC September 
chart, resistance is the 20-day moving average at $7.22, which we tested 
overnight before fading, with the $7.00 area as support, which we have held 
this morning.

   David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com

   Follow him on social platform X @davidfiala




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